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confounding variable
Confounding variable is a variable that, though not measured, causes variation in both the explanatory variable and the outcome variable; also know as a "lurking variable" or a "third variable".
path diagram
Path diagram is, by convention, the explanatory variable "points to" the outcome variable.
complex model
A complex model is a model with at least one explanatory variable.
explain variation
When we can make a better prediction of the outcome variable if we knew something about the explanatory variable; accounting for variation in the outcome variable by using variation in another variable.
effect size
Effect size is a measure of the size of the effect of the explanatory variable on the outcome variable.